Winter is Here!

This is my absolute favorite time of year. Why? Snow, of course!

I think snow is fantastic. I love being in the snow and being outside during the winter months. I enjoy sledding, skiing (downhill, Nordic, and now backcountry), snowboarding, etc. I love it. Then there are the sports that I want to try and haven’t experienced yet, like snowmobiling and ice fishing!

We are lucky to live in an area that has such an abundance of outdoor recreational activities available. The outdoors during winter can also be especially dangerous though, for those who adventure unprepared. The good news is that there are a multitude of ways to get more information about snow data that can help predict weather and climate.

I’m personally a total data geek, and I wanted to talk about some of the ways scientists can use data to measure different outcomes. The information can be utilized for a few different pursuits ranging from water resource management to backcountry skiing. This valuable information can inform and empower a variety of stakeholders ranging from mayors to private landowners to city planners. It’s called SNOTEL (Snowpack Telemetry)! The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) has designed two delightful infographics that highlight parts of the program. 

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/national/water/snowsurvey/?cid=stelprdb1246667

Another way to predict weather can be from studying a climatic pheomena called ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation.) Now, I am not a climate scientist so I do encourage you to check out

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/national/water/snowsurvey/?cid=stelprdb1246667

https://www.climate.gov   

for more information. 

The video below explains the process of predictions and 

some of the limitations that exist when trying to predict seasonal forecasting.  

I can say, though, that the Earth is experiencing a weak La Niña this year. The video below explains more about the predictions for Winter 2016-17.

If video isn’t your thing, here is an image outlining the GENERAL trend that weather might show this year across the globe.

https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/Nina_winterandsummer_620.jpg

If you notice, even in a weak La Niña year, the Northwestern United States does tend to receive an increased amount of cool, wet weather. This has led some to believe that there may be increased snowfall in the NW associated with La Niña. I certainly hope so!

Cheers to a solid snowpack this winter, and Happy Holidays!

~ Ava

Works Cited

Dewitt, Dave. Predicting El Niño and La Niña Events. Online video clip. YouTube. October 7, 2016. https://youtu.be/BAFUG4bRRd0

ENSO Blog. Science and Information for a Climate-Smart Nation. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/enso-blog.

Gratz, Joel. “Whats a Snotel Site and How Does it Work?” http://www.onthesnow.com/news/a/584877/what-s-a-snotel-site-and-how-s-it-work-

Halpert, Mike. NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s 2016-17 winter outlook. Online video clip. YouTube. October 20, 2016. https://youtu.be/KF8YwYUcB_E

L’Heureux, Michelle. “What is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a nutshell?” May 5^th, 2014. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/what-el-ni%C3%B1o%E2%80%93southern-oscillation-enso-nutshell

Miller, Spencer. “Measuring the Value of Snow. March 14^th, 2014. http://blogs.usda.gov/2014/03/14/measuring-the-value-of-snow/

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. “La Niña Outlook, Impacts for Winter 2016-17.” https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/la-nina-outlook-impacts-winter-2016-17

NRCS National Water and Climate Center. “SNOTEL Data Collection Network Fact Sheet.” http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/factpub/sntlfct1.html

Let it snow!

Continuing in the tradition of the last few years of AmeriCorps blogs- I’m here to talk about snow! While the aforementioned element of fire has strongly affected my life, of equal importance is the element of water, specifically in the form of snow. As long as I can remember I’ve always had a deep connection to snow. Winters growing up in the Entiat Valley were always full of sledding, snowshoeing, and cross country skiing. After my family’s home burnt down in 1994, we lived in a yurt while re-building on our property. That was the winter of 1996-97, I was three years old and it snowed upwards of 5 feet. We couldn’t be happier as our yurt turned into an igloo and the landscape found relief in the added moisture. When I was six years old, my mom woke me up to show me that it had snowed overnight and I began to cry because I found it so beautiful. And at 14, I fell in love with the sport of alpine skiing at Mission Ridge and have been incredibly hooked on the sport since. I can’t quite put my finger on it; what snow brings that is so magical. Perhaps it is the peacefulness- the muffling of loud sounds, the necessity of moving slower through our day’s errands. Perhaps it is the nostalgia of feeling like a child again- the ageless feeling we get when playing in the snow. For me it is the coldness of the air that brings a sense of clarity and the endorphins I get from skiing, hiking, and playing in the snow. And obviously, it is the holidays that bring us all together- the break from work and school, the importance of reflection and gratitude we feel during this time of year.

The percentage of area in drought status is still higher right
now that it was one year ago.

Besides the joyous wonders of a white holiday season- the effects of a snowy (or dry) winter last long into the summer. Last winter we saw an incredible lack of snow and the ecological and economic effects of that hit hard over the summer. The effects of the biggest wildfire ever in our state’s history led to lack of tourism and loss of important infrastructure. The lack of water led to a weakness in our defense against those fires, it was hard hitting on orchardists and farmers, habitat for important species suffered, the list goes on and on.  Although we are still currently in a drought- the Department of Ecology recently stated that the Drought Emergency Declaration will be ending at the end of the year due to snow levels being at or above 100% of normal for this time of year. For the emergency declaration to be made water supply levels must be below 75%. The month of December has been so good to our area with snow falling up high and a mixture of rain and snow falling down low. I am eager to see where this El Nino season takes us and am hoping that the trend of snow continues. And if it does, I am eager to see the effects of that come summertime.  

Our region is currently at 126% of normal
snow water equivalent.

As a person whose happiness strongly depends on the ability to ski in the winter months I will say that I’ve learned to do it while you can. Mission Ridge is at ~70 inches of snowfall for the month, close to their ~100 inch December snowfall record. Who knows what the rest of the season will bring us- hopefully more of the same, but possibly not. Until it changes, that’s where you’ll find me (and a few others from the Cascadia office)!

As always thanks for stopping by, on behalf of the Cascadia staff, we wish you a very joyous holiday season! Let me know in the comments what your favorite part of a snowy holiday season is!

-McKenzie

Sources:
ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/wa_swepctnormal_update.pdf
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/drought/index.html
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?WA